Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
