Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".