Rising War of Words Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Fears of Conflict

Mounting apprehensions have emerged over the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational language has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Amid ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Region

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has shown training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the defense force, General Hachalu, commented lately in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the ruler terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war ensued, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated anew.